Does maize have a future in Hungary?

— Forecasts suggest that in 2026, the area sown to grain maize in the European Union could fall below 8 million hectares for the first time this century. In Hungary, the sown area already fell to a hundred-year low of 770,000 hectares in 2025, and the figures available so far for 2026 point to a further decline. Are we looking at a temporary dip, or is Hungarian maize production undergoing a lasting transformation?

T. Á.: Final, official figures for Hungary's maize-growing area in 2026 have not yet been published, but spring estimates suggest that the crop was sown on only around 670,000 hectares. Whether it can fall even lower is difficult to predict. Looking back over the past century of arable crop production in Hungary, maize ranked first by sown area in 44 years, with an average area of more than one million hectares (1,161,000 ha/year). It was only in the past decade that the annual area first fell below one million hectares, which it did in eight years in total (886,000 ha/year on average).

The current low point, then, can no longer be regarded as temporary. After this year's drought — “even more historic” than that of 2022 — when the crop from a significant proportion of the sown area could not even be used for silage or bulk feed, we can expect even more cautious production plans for 2027. Repeated crop failures are only one side of the story. For many farms, a far more pressing reason is insolvency brought on by production losses, caused not only by lost maize income but also by lower yields and low purchase prices for other arable crops. At the same time, in my view, one factor that may now limit any further major reduction in maize area is the shortage of viable alternatives: there are limits to how quickly and radically Hungary's cropping pattern can be restructured. There are also constraints on the buyer, processing and end-use sides of the market.

S. T.: I can't see the future, but the signs point to a prolonged transition. At the same time, given the once prominent role maize played in animal feed, cropping patterns and the profitability of crop production, I don't believe it will permanently disappear from Hungary's crop mix. Humanity's ingenuity and extraordinary capacity to adapt are what set us apart from other living organisms, and that will be no different now. When conditions change for a useful crop, the answer is not to write it off, but to adapt to the new growing conditions.

— What traits should a maize breeder be looking for today, now that the challenge is no longer a single exceptionally dry year but a genuinely changing climate? Can truly “drought-tolerant maize” exist?

S. T.: Let's clarify one thing first: what is drought? It is a prolonged shortage of water in the soil and the wider environment, generally accompanied by high temperatures or heat, which causes serious damage to agriculture and natural ecosystems alike. Plants generally cope poorly with daytime temperatures persistently above 30°C and night-time temperatures of 27–28°C — they too need rest and recovery during the night — but even these conditions can be tolerated if there is water in the soil, or if rain falls regularly, even in small amounts, or in sufficient quantities.

The real question, though, is what counts as a “prolonged” water shortage. This is much less clearly defined. Plants can survive a few weeks — two to three weeks — of drought; if they are drought-tolerant, they recover quickly even with little water and prepare for the next dry spell. Breeders can select for this and develop drought-tolerant varieties. A medium-term drought of a month or more is a harder problem. Here, the crop species also matters: some species can withstand it, while others tolerate it poorly. Breeding can improve survival, but there is only a limited chance of developing an herbaceous crop that can go a month without water without experiencing stress. Against long-term, cumulative drought extending across whole seasons or even several years, breeding is essentially powerless. Herbaceous plants simply cannot survive for months without precipitation unless a permanent reserve of water is available to them in the soil. Months without rainfall are, with only slight exaggeration, desert conditions — and there is no crop production in a desert without irrigation.

Drought has always been part of Hungary's climate; this is nothing new. Severe droughts and prolonged, cumulative water shortages lasting several years also occurred 50 to 100 years ago. What has changed is their frequency and duration. Put differently, droughts now occur too often and last too long. I say this because, throughout the 75-year history of maize breeding in Martonvásár, breeders have always selected for drought tolerance; it has always been an important prerequisite in the development of a new hybrid. Drought-tolerant maize does exist, and there are significant differences in drought tolerance between hybrids and varieties. That is exactly what a breeder is looking for.

— Can breeding keep pace with the speed of climate change? What can maize breeding in Martonvásár contribute?

S. T.: No one can keep pace with the speed of today's climate change. It has hit us abruptly and is unfolding faster than anyone had expected. The breeding process itself is becoming faster — consider how the time required to develop an inbred line has fallen from six to eight years to just eighteen months — but even that is not enough at present. Still, breeding is expected to adapt to rapidly changing conditions, albeit with some delay.

To return to your previous question, maize breeding in Martonvásár uses a range of traditional and modern biotechnological methods — non-GMO methods — to improve the drought tolerance of maize hybrids. A shorter growing season, cold tolerance, suitability for earlier sowing, early flowering, an erect leaf habit, an optimal canopy, a well-developed and deep root system, thicker stalks and a waxy leaf surface are all traits that can be developed and improved. Using biotechnological methods, we can map the genes associated with cold and drought tolerance at the genome, or DNA, level and deliberately select plants capable of adapting. These are only a few examples; we have considerably more tools and approaches available to us.

— When drought comes up, irrigation is often the first solution people mention. But is it realistic in Hungary to see irrigation as a general solution that can save maize production, or is a far more complex adaptation strategy needed?

T. Á.: One element of the solution — though not a decisive one for Hungarian maize production as a whole — must be to expand the area that can be irrigated and modernise irrigation systems. Of greater, though less visible, importance is the development and application of agronomic methods that improve resilience. This means selecting lower-risk growing sites and, beyond soil cultivation, variety choice, sowing date and stand density, using and coordinating every method, procedure and piece of equipment capable of providing site-specific interventions adapted to crop phenology and production intensity, with costs aligned to the revenue that can realistically be expected at a particular site.

S. T.: Irrigation is not a universal solution for maize production, but it has now become a basic requirement. A much more complex adaptation strategy is needed. This includes growing new species that tolerate or even prefer dry conditions; breeding drought-tolerant varieties; water-conserving soil management and agronomy; sound and judicious nutrient management; managing soil organic matter; reducing plant populations per hectare and maintaining thinner stands; crop care and weed control; and, where appropriate, mulching, soil cover and cover cropping. If I may float a more unconventional idea, plant-protection products could be used that act rather like a “sunscreen” for plants, protecting them from harmful UV-B radiation or cooling them in extreme heat.

But the most important point — and the one I really should have started with — is resolving Hungary's water-management and water-governance issues. That means ensuring sufficient water volumes in rivers, lakes and both temporary and permanent watercourses; stabilising their water levels; raising and maintaining surface-water and groundwater levels; operating irrigation-canal networks; and ensuring adequate water supplies for both natural ecosystems and cultivated crops. It also means restoring wetlands and preserving them over the long term, retaining water and managing it more effectively.

— Under what conditions can maize production continue in Hungary?

T. Á.: Under current market conditions, it can continue wherever the available resources, knowledge and experience are used well enough for the expected yield, averaged over a number of years, to reach at least 6 t/ha, while yield variability does not exceed 40–45%, compared with the 60–80% typical of recent decades.

S. T.: If the solutions I proposed in response to the previous question are applied together, in a genuinely integrated way, across Hungarian agriculture.

— Which three changes should we start making now if Hungarian maize production is still to be competitive in 2035?

T. Á.: The first is identifying sites that are unsuitable or carry a high risk for maize production and putting them to use for other crops instead. The second is choosing a level of technological intensity matched to the available groundwater reserves, with particular attention to the quantities accumulated during the winter half-year. And the third is strengthening more efficient forms of business organisation and improving cooperation among farmers in order to secure a more favourable competitive position in the market — not only for maize.

S. T.: First and foremost, I would put resolving water-management and water-governance issues and making the transition to irrigated farming. Next come water-conserving agronomy; modern precision crop-production systems; efficient irrigation and nutrient supply; and, depending on the site, possibly non-inversion tillage. Plant populations per hectare should be reduced, and products that protect against heat and radiation should be used.

It is also important to develop, using both traditional and modern biotechnological methods, hybrids that can be sown early, are cold-tolerant and short-season, produce high yields, and use nutrients and water very efficiently. We should also breed maize hybrids with a tendency to produce a second ear, which in favourable years can compensate for lower plant populations per hectare by developing that second ear. And if I may add one more suggestion, I would say we need to curb greenhouse-gas emissions and reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in order to slow, halt and ultimately reverse global climate change.