Two Rounds In, Can We Already Tell Who Will Win the Champions League?

This year, we've said goodbye to the familiar group stages with the often inconsequential six rounds of matches in both the Champions League and the more recent Europa League, as well as the Conference League. Instead, we now have an extended league phase that runs until the end of January, with a huge table in which each team plays eight matches (six in the Conference League). At the end of the league phase, the top eight teams receive a bye to the round of 16, while teams ranked 9th to 24th compete for a place in the last 16. In the spring, teams ranked 25th to 36th can focus on their respective domestic competitions.

The new system makes it much more difficult to assess teams' chances of progressing compared to previous formats, according to HUN-REN researchers. They use a mathematical model to make updated predictions before each round and briefly evaluate the results. László Csató and András Gyimesi, researchers in the Research Group of Operations Research and Decision Systems of SZTAKI’s Research Laboratory on Engineering and Management Intelligence, produce these forecasts as part of an international project in collaboration with researchers from Belgium and the Netherlands. Their predictions can be followed on this website.

The prediction model is based on teams' Elo ratings, building on László Csató's earlier research. Unlike the UEFA club coefficient, the Elo rating considers a far greater number of matches and is calculated using a more advanced methodology, resulting in more accurate predictions.

Prior to the start of this year's Champions League and Europa League, participating teams were divided into four pots based on their UEFA club coefficients. For example, Arsenal, last season’s Premier League runners-up, were placed in the second Champions League pot according to UEFA's rankings. However, their Elo rating was the fourth highest. Accordingly, calculations suggest that Arsenal have an 85% chance of reaching the last 16. Only defending champions Real Madrid (90%) and top-ranked Manchester City (~97%) had better odds than Arsenal before the first matchday. According to HUN-REN SZTAKI researchers, all nine teams in the first pot have at least a 60% chance of making it to the round of 16.

In the second-tier Europa League, Manchester United, Tottenham, Porto, Lazio, and Roma are the favourites, with over an 80% chance of reaching the last 16, according to HUN-REN SZTAKI researchers. Ferencváros, on the other hand, were given a 76% chance of being eliminated at the end of the league phase in the pre-tournament predictions. This forecast has only been reinforced by the performance of the Hungarian champions, who have since lost both of their matches. According to the latest results, Ferencváros now have an 85% chance of being eliminated.

In a previous study, András Gyimesi examined how much more balanced the new competition format would be compared to the old one. First, he looked at how competitive the matches are likely to be on average, i.e., whether teams of similar strength would play each other. The research showed that, under the new system, more matchups between teams from the same pot are expected. Previously, a first-pot team could only play against teams from the second, third, or fourth pots.

In terms of the second aspect of the research, it is expected that there will be fewer inconsequential matches, as in the old format, final group stage games were often irrelevant for some teams. In theory, this should happen less frequently under the new system, with the final matches likely to be particularly crucial for the big teams. These games will determine whether they advance directly to the round of 16 or enter the play-offs.

The third aspect of the research focused on whether the new system could bring about a significant change in terms of the eventual winners. The research found no major difference, meaning that teams with a strong history of reaching the final are likely to have a similar chance of making it as before.

Although it's too early to say whether the new format is better or worse after the first two rounds, it's clear that the new Champions League and Europa League formats will see more balanced matchups and high-profile clashes.