Maize and Potatoes Could Bear the Brunt of This Summer’s Drought – Apple Yields Also at Risk in Hungary

Over the past three decades, the frequency and severity of droughts in Hungary have clearly increased, and these events are increasingly accompanied by intense heatwaves. In addition to the overall decline in annual rainfall, the situation is further exacerbated by the increasingly uneven distribution of precipitation throughout the year. According to climate experts, projections for the coming decades indicate a continued worsening of drought conditions.

According to researchers at the HUN-REN Centre for Agricultural Research, droughts are not only expected to become more frequent, but also to last longer and affect increasingly large areas—posing serious challenges for agricultural, industrial and public water users.

According to our researchers, in the short term, drought primarily harms agricultural production, severely affecting the most important arable crops. In the longer term, repeated and intense drying leads to a decline in soil organic matter content, structural degradation and reduced water retention capacity—all of which diminish soil quality and ultimately result in lower productivity, emphasised Zsófia Bakacsi, Head of Department at the Institute for Soil Sciences of the HUN-REN Centre for Agricultural Research.

This year’s drought is having a particularly severe impact on maize, water-demanding legumes and potatoes, but it is affecting almost all arable and orchard crops—especially when the lack of rainfall coincides with critical development phases, such as flowering or fruit setting. Constant water deficiency weakens fruit trees such as apple, apricot and cherry, making them more susceptible to disease. Drought during flowering can also result in significant yield loss.

‘The impacts of drought can be mitigated through a variety of technological solutions,’ said Nándor Fodor, Director of the Agricultural Institute at the HUN-REN Centre for Agricultural Research. In his view, the effects of drought can be countered by breeding crop varieties that are more tolerant of water scarcity and/or heat stress, and by increasing the soil’s organic matter content and its water retention capacity. He added that, within the framework of a comprehensive water management strategy, Hungary must significantly expand its irrigated areas and modernise its outdated irrigation systems and water abstraction infrastructure.

Researchers at the HUN-REN Centre for Agricultural Research say that AI can play an effective role in drought management by optimising resource use and accelerating plant breeding. “AI algorithms can determine the optimal water and nutrient requirements of agricultural land, improve the efficiency of irrigation systems, and reduce the use of agrochemicals,” said Nándor Fodor. He added that AI can significantly shorten the time required to develop new crop varieties that are more drought-tolerant or resistant to various pathogens, by analysing existing genetic and environmental data.