Wetland Restoration Could Help Hungary’s Great Plain Adapt to Drought

Agriculture on the Great Plain is currently dominated by a handful of arable crops—wheat, maize, barley, rapeseed, and sunflower. But this highly specialised and concentrated system is facing a prolonged crisis as a result of climate change, increasingly frequent droughts, and repeated disruptions in agricultural markets. Given its natural characteristics, the Great Plain is considered one of Europe’s climate change hot spots. According to the researchers, piecemeal technological fixes will not be enough; the entire land-use system needs to be reconsidered.

Nearly One Million Hectares of Restorable Wetlands

The study identifies close to one million hectares across the Great Plain where former wetlands could potentially be restored. By combining hydrological and ecosystem models, the authors examined how interventions such as water retaining and the controlled diversion of a flood wave from the Tisza River could affect groundwater reserves positively and, through them, crop yields on surrounding farmland.

Based on modelling in a 247-square-kilometre Tisza floodplain basin, groundwater recharge could increase by an average of 367 to 552 cubic metres per hectare per year. Water retention would be especially beneficial on flat terraces rising one to two metres above the surrounding wetlands. In these areas, calculations suggest that maize yields could increase by 20 to 28 percent as a result of higher groundwater levels.

No One-Size-Fits-All Solution

The researchers identified potential target areas for water retention using a range of criteria, including included arable suitability, protected status or high ecological value, exposure to inland excess water and drought, and nitrate sensitivity. The analysis excluded built-up areas, open water surfaces, and high-productivity arable land.

The results show that 21 percent of the Great Plain consists of low- or medium-productivity land prone to waterlogging, where water retention may be justified—or even necessary.

The research highlights two priority zones.

Zone 1: Where Nature Conservation and Water Retention Go Hand in Hand

Zone 1 includes areas where inland flooding occurs more frequently than once every five years and where land is either protected or of high ecological value. These areas are also significantly affected by nitrate sensitivity.

According to the authors, water retention in these locations would often go hand in hand with a change in land use, entailing a shift away from arable farming towards more nature-friendly forms of management. This would matter not only from an ecological perspective, but also from a policy standpoint, as it aligns with both Hungarian and EU environmental goals.

Zone 2: Where Ecosystem Services Come to the Fore

Zone 2 is also characterised by a high probability of excess water occurrence and nitrate sensitivity, but it has no formal conservation status. Here, the share of arable land is particularly high, at 88 percent, compared with 41 percent in Zone 1. The researchers argue that in these areas, strengthening wetland-related ecosystem services could offer a serious alternative to the current form of arable farming, which is often unprofitable and heavily dependent on public support.

These ecosystem services could include flood protection, drought mitigation, groundwater recharge, biodiversity recovery, and enhanced landscape and tourism value.

Not a Return to the Past, but an Adaptation to the Future

One of the study’s key messages is that wetland restoration should not be seen merely as a conservation measure. According to the researchers, it could become a cornerstone of climate-adaptive land use on the Great Plain, where conventional intensive arable farming is becoming less and less sustainable in many areas.

Water retention could simultaneously reduce the impacts of drought, improve groundwater conditions, support ecological regeneration, and in some locations even enhance agricultural productivity. The study therefore suggests that the future of the Great Plain may lie not in ever more intensive drainage, but in retaining water in the landscape.